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1、 Chinas exchange rate policy to the evaluation Abstract: this article from the four aspects of RMB exchange rate policy, that in the past five years, Chinas trade imbalances and exchange rate system is getting worse and worse, no sign of improvement; The existing international organization for it

2、s members though exchange rate policies are clearly defined, but have no enforcement; The current Chinese exchange rate policy, no matter to China, the United States, or any other country is bad; For Chinas exchange rate policy, at present there are generally an error, which greatly, rapid appreciat

3、ion of the RMB not feasible, not suitable for; China should immediately be RMB exchange rate from the current level to rise by 10-15 percent. I. introduction and preview Thank you Mr. Chairman gave me the opportunity to speak to me Chinese exchange rate policys views. First of all, in the past f

4、ive years, Chinas exchange rate policy reform in the slow progress; Secondly, Id like to say why Chinas exchange rate reform statement to the Chinese economy will slow progress, the American economy, international monetary system, and the global trading system have an important impact on; Again, I m

5、ainly expounds the relevant Chinese exchange rate reform is slow excuse and cant convincing alibi and reasons; Fourth, about Chinas exchange-rate policy of several erroneous zone. At last, I in China in the next one to two years, in promoting exchange rate reform can and should take some action, I w

6、ill take this a few problems initiates. First, in the past five years, Chinas trade imbalances and exchange rate system is getting worse and worse, no sign of improvement. In 2006, Chinas current-account surplus soared (soar) to 9% of GDP, at present the RMB against Chinas trade partners of the

7、 mean value at least 30% undervalued currency; Against the dollar, is at least 40% undervalued. From June 2005 to now, up 6.5% against the dollar, but relatively revaluation of the RMB against the dollar was not enough to suspend (halt) Chinas competitive power in the international market of cumulat

8、ive rises, also did not reduce Chinas trade surplus. Second, the existing international organization for its members though exchange rate policies are clearly defined, but are not enforced. First look at the Chinese government, although China in the past four years have been engaged in a lot of

9、, single direction of the foreign exchange market intervention, the Chinese authorities are still denied currency manipulation. Second look at the Treasury, although a lot of evidence showing China handle the truth in the foreign exchange market, but the Treasury still refused to China defined as "c

10、urrency manipulator". Finally see the international monetary fund, although the IMF is one of the original intention was established to promote the development of all countries exchange rate policy, but now it looks, the IMFs senior officials have also would not for a dedicated to the IMF constructi

11、on supervision and restraint world international coordinating mechanism of exchange rate policy. The third, and the slowness of the progress of Chinas exchange rate policy reform, no matter to China, the United States, or any other country is unfavorable. In Chinas case, the RMB is undervalued cur

12、rency manipulation and serious fact behavior of China to the foreign trade from the balance and consumption Spill-over economic growth target, also on the Chinas monetary policy independence, also interfere with the reform of the Chinese banking system, and improve the international society to China

13、 in international currency and trade system inside become a "responsible stakeholder" in doubt. For America, the RMB is the modest rise not promote Asia the positive development of exchange rate system and the role of the U.S. trade deficit and no so and be able to improve and will not reduce the do

14、llar crisis happened U.S. economy and the risk of a hard landing. If this situation continues, emerging market countries may follow China in succession, that will give the global currency system brings the serious influence, and even can be caused by the U.S., Europe, Japan and other countries of th

15、e backlash. Fourth , the Chinese exchange rate policy , the current prevalence of a misunderstanding, that the RMB is substantially rapid appreciation is not feasible , is not suitable . This understanding is incorrect. Large appreciation of the RMB will not give the economic development, emplo

16、yment and social stability in China have devastating effects. Take bolder action on RMB exchange rate in Chinas banking system is not broken, also there is no need to put in further reforms of the financial system. If the United States Treasury to China a currency manipulator, which will be conduciv

17、e to Chinas exchange rate system reform. Fifth, China should immediately from the current level , the RMB exchange rate appreciated by 10-15percent. In view of the exchange rate of the RMB long underestimated, it the adverse effect is difficult to through the modest rise again to eliminate. Onl

18、y the RMB exchange rate rise sharply to completely disposable, solve the problem. A small revaluation of the RMB against the dollar (such as rising 5% a year), to America, scant effect, because the united himself in the cut trade deficit will be difficult. In order to improve the social stability, C

19、hina in promoting more bold exchange rate reform (Bolder exchange rate action) at the same time, should be increased government spending, adjust expenditure direction, so as to promote the construction of social security network, reduce the precautionary saving not high. The Treasury should explain

20、to the Chinese government, and from now on the Treasury will have been to investigate Chinas current account balance, the change of actual and effective exchange rate changes every month and the Chinese government intervening in the foreign exchange market situation, assess external adjustment and r

21、eform of Chinas exchange rate effect. The Treasury should the urgent requirement of Chinas exchange rate issues in May 2007 as a china-us strategic economic dialogue on the agenda to pressure the government to China, until achieved effect so far. If the exchange rate of the RMB was not yet increase,

22、 in the Treasury report to congress in the material, it should be defined as China currency manipulator. Finally, the international monetary fund was established to promote global exchange rate is one of the development of the system, but the IMF the problem is it not only to the exchange rate syst

23、em change provide guidelines, more should urges countries to exchange rate system to reform, this is all countries promote exchange rate system favorable development of effective way. II. four indicators Looking back on the past five years Beijing and Washington issued announcement, you might thin

24、k that China is moving toward reduce external economic imbalance, adjust the exchange rate policy direction. Here I use four index rethinking about the question, will get a different conclusion. The first indicator: Chinas current-account surplus：In the past five years , China s current account

25、surplus has been growing , and 1% of GDP in 2001 , nearly 9 percent of GDP in 2006 . Calculated in U.S. dollars , China is the largest country in the world on a trade surplus ; the current account balance accounted for the proportion of economies of scale to measure Chinas trade surplus is more ser

26、ious than the U.S. trade deficit . Compared with the same period in 2006, the first two months of 2007 , Chinas current account balance increased by 225% . Visible, the external equilibrium of the Chinese economy is even worse. The second indicator: Chinas actual effective exchange rate：Compared

27、 with the nominal exchange rate, actual and effective exchange rate is measured economic competitiveness of Chinas more appropriate index. In the past five, six years, against the dollars actual and effective exchange rate increased 2%. Some people think that the RMB against the US dollar was 6.5%,

28、from RMB 1 dollar to 8.28 to 1 dollar to 7.73 RMB (March 22, 2007), the effect is remarkable. In fact, the RMB is still undervalued, RMB against the Chinese trade partner of the mean value at least 30% undervalued currency; against the dollar, is at least 40% undervalued. And relative appreciation a

29、gainst the dollar does not help to reduce trade surplus. The third indicator: the RMB exchange rate of the market economy：In June 2005, the Chinese government announced on the RMB exchange rate system to reform, realize the exchange rate of the market economy. But in fact the RMB exchange rate a

30、nd not out of the market economy. In order to maintain the currency relative stability, the Chinese government has been manipulating foreign exchange market, every month amount of intervention last year to $20 billion. This and announced that the RMB exchange rate reform of before the first half yea

31、r of 2005 level is consistent. In the past three years, Chinas foreign exchange market intervention level of 10% of GDP. More seriously, a lot of intervention in the foreign exchange market at the same time, the central bank had a lot of "Write-off" operation, this kind of behavior circulation at th

32、e same time (the domestic money supply increased, inflation rate growth), foreign exchange reserves will continue to rise, otherwise, even if the RMB nominal exchange rate unchanged, the competitiveness of China can seriously reduce. In fact, the RMB exchange rate is still controlled prospective fix

33、ed rate. The fourth indicator: As a member of the IMF, to fulfill the commitment of the exchange rate policy：As one of the IMF member countries, China should fulfill its commitment to reform its exchange rate policy. A member of the IMF have promised not to "currency manipulation", the Chinese g

34、overnment also insisted that no manipulation of the foreign exchange market. One of the primary means of manipulating the exchange rate of Chinas monetary authorities, continued to intervene in the foreign exchange market III. the significance. At some point: the economy of China external diseq

35、uilibrium state and RMB underestimated conditions improve, whether have improved speed and what is not important, but I dont think so. The significance of China: Obviously, Chinas exchange rate policy on China, is very important. Chinese authorities say they are willing to from investment and expor

36、t-led growth strategy to consumption and domestic demand investment-driven growth change, also would like to turn to more independent monetary policy, and consolidate their banking systems. As Chinas economy in the world economy in the proportion of growth, China hopes to become a "responsible stake

37、holder". But, the RMB is undervalued and serious interest rate behavior led to the manipulation of the Chinese is difficult to achieve the goal. If not greatly raise interest rates, it is difficult to keep the existing Chinese investment levels, reduce the uncertainty of growth, because only then

38、 can attract a lot of speculative capital inflows, but also to the exchange rate reform brings great pressure. When the RMB is serious underestimate, export and trade surplus production capacity will be difficult to lower down, which show that the situation development is more and more disadvantage.

39、 Chinas commercial Banks are right now is: hand holding the central bank to write-off the operation, low yield of; Reserve rate are improving; RMB underestimated the headline foreign exchange reserve climbed, even if a large amount of write-off, part of foreign exchange reserves transformed into the

40、 fast growth the commercial bank loan; Many commercial bank loan object and the loan amount is designated by the central bank. Therefore, the reform of Chinas commercial banks is difficult. In addition, Chinas exports to the industrialized countries and attract foreign investment is difficult to mai

41、ntain stability. IV. Countermeasures As mentioned above, not too much criticism of the Chinese exchange rate policy, then if the recent exchange rate system reform in China is not ideal , in order to avoid adverse impact on Chinas exchange rate policy to the parties in the next few years , Chin

42、a can take What measures ? Chinas urgent is the RMB appreciation from the current level of 10-15 percent. One way is to directly to RMB valuation, another method is to stop intervening in the foreign exchange market, let the RMB to rise. If China in 2003 and 2004 and the realization of the trade

43、 surplus reduced gradually, the RMB devalues gradually words, the situation will be better. Now the situation is: RMB underestimated badly, must carry on stage to RMB exchange rate adjustment. Should make clear of the RMB against the dollar is relatively slow appreciation can not solve the problem.

44、The real effective exchange rate $assumptions in the next three years worth 15%-20%, even if the RMB against the dollar to rise by 5% a year, and its real effective exchange rate also wont have a big revaluation, that is, the real effective exchange rate by the influence of the dollar. Therefore, ca

45、nt isolated see the name of the RMB against the dollar exchange rate is in appreciation. More seriously, when the slow appreciation in orbit, the market could expect the RMB has an unexpected rise sharply, this will cause of speculative capital inflows into China. To sum up, Nick Lardy and Ive alwa

46、ys thought the RMB to rise sharply, one-time is the right move, is RMB monetary system reform of the two-step first step. In bold the exchange rate adjustment at the same time, the Chinese government should adjust the direction of expansion of government spending, expenses, including medical, ed

47、ucation and perfect pension system, social security system, decreased due to imperfect social security caused by the high savings rate. In addition, China should abandon the "RMB exchange rate is a national sovereignty" ideas, strict compliance with IMF members on the exchange rate policy of the tre

48、aty. The United States National Economic Council, March 28, 2007 Peterson institute for international economics, Morris Goldstein 對(duì)中國(guó)匯率政策的評(píng)估 摘 要：本文從四個(gè)方面闡述了人民幣匯率政策，即在過去的五年中，中國(guó)的貿(mào)易不平衡和匯率體系在不斷惡化，沒有好轉(zhuǎn)的跡象；現(xiàn)有的國(guó)際組織雖然對(duì)其成員國(guó)的匯率政策有明確的規(guī)定，但都沒有強(qiáng)制執(zhí)行；目前的中國(guó)匯率政策無(wú)論對(duì)中國(guó)、美國(guó)，還是

49、其他國(guó)家都是不利的；對(duì)于中國(guó)匯率政策，目前普遍存在著一個(gè)誤區(qū)，即人民幣大幅度、快速升值不可行、不適合；中國(guó)應(yīng)該立即將人民幣匯率從目前的水平上升值10%—15%。 一、 介紹和預(yù)覽 感謝主席先生給我這個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)來(lái)陳述我對(duì)中國(guó)匯率政策的一些看法。首先，在過去的五年中，中國(guó)在推進(jìn)匯率政策改革方面進(jìn)展緩慢；其次，我想陳述為什么說中國(guó)匯率改革進(jìn)展緩慢會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、國(guó)際貨幣體系、以及全球貿(mào)易體系產(chǎn)生重要影響；再次，我主要闡述有關(guān)中國(guó)匯率改革進(jìn)展緩慢的借口和托辭并不能令人信服的原因；第四，關(guān)于中國(guó)匯率政策的幾個(gè)誤區(qū)。最后，我對(duì)中國(guó)在未來(lái)的一至兩年內(nèi)，在推進(jìn)匯率改革方面能夠和應(yīng)該采取哪些行動(dòng)

50、，我將就這幾個(gè)問題逐一論述。 第一、在過去的五年中，中國(guó)的貿(mào)易不平衡和匯率體系在不斷惡化，沒有好轉(zhuǎn)的跡象。 2006年，中國(guó)的經(jīng)常賬戶余額飆升（soar）到GDP的9%，目前人民幣兌中國(guó)貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)貨幣的均值至少低估30%；人民幣兌美元，則至少低估了40%。從2005年6月至今，人民幣兌美元上升了6.5%，但是人民幣對(duì)美元的相對(duì)升值還不足以中止（halt）中國(guó)在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的累積性上升，也沒有降低中國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差。 第二，現(xiàn)有的國(guó)際組織雖然對(duì)其成員國(guó)的匯率政策有明確的規(guī)定，但都沒有強(qiáng)制執(zhí)行。 首先看中國(guó)政府，盡管中國(guó)在過去的四年中一直從事大量的、單方向的外匯市場(chǎng)干預(yù)，中國(guó)當(dāng)局仍然否認(rèn)

51、貨幣操縱。其次看美國(guó)財(cái)政部，盡管大量證據(jù)顯示中國(guó)對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)的操縱事實(shí)，但美國(guó)財(cái)政部仍然拒絕將中國(guó)定義為“貨幣操縱國(guó)”。最后看國(guó)際貨幣基金組織，雖然IMF成立的初衷之一是推動(dòng)各國(guó)匯率政策的發(fā)展，但是目前看來(lái)，IMF高級(jí)官員沒有也不愿意將IMF建設(shè)為一個(gè)致力于監(jiān)督并約束世界各國(guó)匯率政策的國(guó)際協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)構(gòu)。 第三、進(jìn)展緩慢的中國(guó)匯率政策改革對(duì)中國(guó)是不利的。 對(duì)于中國(guó)而言，人民幣的嚴(yán)重低估事實(shí)和匯率操縱行為背離了中國(guó)向外貿(mào)平衡和消費(fèi)帶動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的目標(biāo)，也影響了中國(guó)貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性，還妨礙了中國(guó)銀行體系的改革，也提高了國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)在國(guó)際貨幣和貿(mào)易體系內(nèi)成為一個(gè)“負(fù)責(zé)任的利益相關(guān)者”的疑慮。對(duì)美國(guó)而言

52、，人民幣的這種小幅升值沒有起到促進(jìn)亞洲地區(qū)匯率體系的良性發(fā)展的作用，美國(guó)的貿(mào)易赤字也沒有因此而得以改善，也不會(huì)降低發(fā)生美元危機(jī)以及美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果這種狀況持續(xù)下去，新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家有可能紛紛效仿中國(guó)，那將會(huì)給全球匯率體系帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重影響，甚至有可能引發(fā)美國(guó)、歐洲、日本等國(guó)的報(bào)復(fù)行動(dòng)。 第四、對(duì)于中國(guó)匯率政策，目前普遍存在著一個(gè)誤區(qū)，即人民幣大幅度、快速升值不可行、不適合。這種認(rèn)識(shí)是不正確的。 人民幣大幅升值不會(huì)給中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、就業(yè)、社會(huì)穩(wěn)定帶來(lái)災(zāi)難性的影響。對(duì)人民幣匯率采取更大膽的行動(dòng)既不會(huì)破壞中國(guó)的銀行體系，也沒有必要放在金融體系的進(jìn)一步改革之后。如果美國(guó)財(cái)政部將中國(guó)定義為匯率操縱國(guó)，

53、這將有利于中國(guó)匯率制度的變革。 第五、中國(guó)應(yīng)該將人民幣匯率從目前的水平上升值10%—15%。 鑒于人民幣匯率長(zhǎng)期低估，它產(chǎn)生的不良效應(yīng)很難通過一次次小幅升值來(lái)消除。只有人民幣匯率一次性、大幅升值才能徹底解決問題。人民幣相對(duì)美元小幅升值（比如每年上升5%），對(duì)美國(guó)來(lái)說起不到什么作用，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)自己在削減貿(mào)易逆差上很有難度。為了提高社會(huì)穩(wěn)定性，中國(guó)在推進(jìn)更大膽的匯率改革（Bolder exchange rate action）的同時(shí)，應(yīng)該增加政府開支、調(diào)整開支方向，從而推動(dòng)社會(huì)保障網(wǎng)絡(luò)的建設(shè)，降低高居不下的預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄。美國(guó)財(cái)政部應(yīng)該向中國(guó)政府說明，從今以后美國(guó)財(cái)政部將一直考察中國(guó)的經(jīng)常賬戶余額的

54、變化，實(shí)際有效匯率變動(dòng)以及中國(guó)政府每個(gè)月對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)的干預(yù)情況，據(jù)此評(píng)估中國(guó)外部調(diào)整和匯率改革效果。美國(guó)財(cái)政部應(yīng)該迫切要求把中國(guó)的匯率問題列為2007年5月召開的中美戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)話的首要議程，以此向中國(guó)政府施加壓力，直到取得效果為止。如果人民幣匯率那時(shí)還沒有大幅提高，在美國(guó)財(cái)政部給國(guó)會(huì)的匯報(bào)材料中，應(yīng)該將中國(guó)定義為匯率操縱國(guó)。最后，世界貨幣基金組織成立的目的之一就是促進(jìn)推動(dòng)全球匯率體系的發(fā)展，但是IMF目前的問題是它不僅僅要為匯率體系變革提供指導(dǎo)方針，更應(yīng)該督促各國(guó)匯率體系去改革，這才是促進(jìn)各國(guó)匯率體系良性發(fā)展的有效途徑。 二、 四個(gè)指標(biāo) 回顧過去的五年中北京和華盛頓發(fā)布的公告，你可能會(huì)認(rèn)

55、為，中國(guó)正朝著減少外部經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡、調(diào)整匯率政策的方向發(fā)展。這里我用四個(gè)指標(biāo)重新考量一下這個(gè)問題，就會(huì)得到一個(gè)不同的結(jié)論。 第一個(gè)指標(biāo)：中國(guó)的經(jīng)常賬戶盈余。在過去的五年中，中國(guó)的經(jīng)常賬戶盈余一直在增長(zhǎng)，2001年為GDP的1%，2006年接近GDP的9%。以美元來(lái)計(jì)算，中國(guó)是世界上貿(mào)易順差最大的國(guó)家；以經(jīng)常賬戶余額占經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的比重來(lái)衡量，中國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差比美國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差問題更加嚴(yán)重。與2006年同期相比，2007年的前兩個(gè)月，中國(guó)的經(jīng)常賬戶余額增幅達(dá)225%。可見，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的外部均衡狀態(tài)更加惡化。 第二個(gè)指標(biāo)：中國(guó)的實(shí)際有效匯率。與名義匯率相比，實(shí)際有效匯率是衡量中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的更合適的指標(biāo)。在

56、過去的五、六年間，人民幣兌美元的實(shí)際有效匯率增長(zhǎng)了2%。有些人認(rèn)為人民幣兌美元升值了6.5%，從1美元兌8.28人民幣降到1美元兌7.73人民幣（2007年3月22日），效果顯著。事實(shí)上，人民幣目前還是被低估了，人民幣兌中國(guó)貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)貨幣的均值至少低估30%；人民幣兌美元，則至少低估了40%。而且人民幣兌美元相對(duì)升值無(wú)助于削減貿(mào)易順差。 第三個(gè)指標(biāo)：人民幣匯率市場(chǎng)化。2005年6月，中國(guó)政府宣布對(duì)人民幣匯率體系進(jìn)行改革，實(shí)現(xiàn)匯率市場(chǎng)化。但事實(shí)上人民幣匯率并沒有實(shí)現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)化。為了維持人民幣相對(duì)穩(wěn)定，中國(guó)政府一直在操縱外匯市場(chǎng)，去年每個(gè)月的干預(yù)額度達(dá)到200億美元。這和宣布人民幣匯率改革之前的20

57、05年上半年的水平是一致的。在過去的三年中，中國(guó)外匯市場(chǎng)的干預(yù)程度達(dá)到GDP的10%。更嚴(yán)重的是，對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)的大量干預(yù)的同時(shí)中央銀行進(jìn)行了大量的“沖銷”操作，這種行為循環(huán)的同時(shí)（國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣供應(yīng)不斷增加、通貨膨脹率增長(zhǎng)），外匯儲(chǔ)備必然不斷攀升，否則，即使人民幣的名義匯率維持不變，中國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力也會(huì)嚴(yán)重降低。事實(shí)表明，人民幣匯率仍然是受管制的準(zhǔn)固定利率。 第四個(gè)指標(biāo)：作為IMF的成員國(guó)，是否履行匯率政策方面的承諾。作為國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的成員國(guó)之一，中國(guó)應(yīng)該履行改革匯率政策的承諾。IMF的每一個(gè)成員國(guó)都承諾不“操縱匯率”，中國(guó)政府也堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為沒有操縱外匯市場(chǎng)。中國(guó)貨幣當(dāng)局操縱匯率的主要手段之一是大量的、

58、持續(xù)的干預(yù)外匯市場(chǎng)。 三、 意義何在 有些觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的外部不均衡狀態(tài)以及人民幣匯率低估狀況是否改善、改善得快慢并不是什么重要問題，但我不這樣認(rèn)為。 對(duì)中國(guó)的意義：顯然，中國(guó)的匯率政策對(duì)中國(guó)自己來(lái)講至關(guān)重要。中國(guó)當(dāng)局表示他們?cè)敢鈴耐顿Y和出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)向消費(fèi)和內(nèi)需拉動(dòng)型增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)變，也愿意轉(zhuǎn)向更加獨(dú)立的貨幣政策，同時(shí)鞏固他們的銀行系統(tǒng)。隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中比重的增長(zhǎng)，中國(guó)希望能夠成為一個(gè)“負(fù)責(zé)任的利益相關(guān)者”。 但是，人民幣的嚴(yán)重低估和對(duì)利率的操縱行為導(dǎo)致中國(guó)難以實(shí)現(xiàn)上述目標(biāo)。如果不大幅提高利率，中國(guó)很難保持現(xiàn)有的投資水平，降低增長(zhǎng)的不確定性，因?yàn)橹挥羞@樣才能吸引大量

59、的投機(jī)資金流入，但也給匯率改革帶來(lái)了很大壓力。當(dāng)人民幣被嚴(yán)重的低估時(shí)，出口和貿(mào)易行業(yè)過剩的生產(chǎn)能力就難以降低下來(lái)，這都表明形勢(shì)發(fā)展越來(lái)越不利。中國(guó)的商業(yè)銀行現(xiàn)在的狀況是：手中持有央行用來(lái)沖銷操作的大量、低收益?zhèn)?；?zhǔn)備金率不斷提高；人民幣匯率低估導(dǎo)致外匯儲(chǔ)備不斷攀升，即使采取大量的沖銷，部分外匯儲(chǔ)備轉(zhuǎn)化成了快速增長(zhǎng)的商業(yè)銀行貸款；不少商業(yè)銀行的貸款對(duì)象和貸款數(shù)額是由中央銀行指定的。因此，中國(guó)的商業(yè)銀行的改革困難重重。此外，中國(guó)向工業(yè)化國(guó)家出口和吸引國(guó)外投資上難以保持穩(wěn)定。 四、應(yīng)對(duì)之策 如前文所述，美國(guó)不能對(duì)中國(guó)匯率政策過多批評(píng)，那么如果近期中國(guó)的匯率制度改革不理想，為了避免中國(guó)的匯率政策

60、給各方帶來(lái)不良影響，在未來(lái)的幾年里，中國(guó)可以采取哪些措施呢？ 中國(guó)的當(dāng)務(wù)之急是將人民幣從目前的水平上升值10%—15%。一種方法是直接對(duì)人民幣重新估值，另一種方法是停止對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)的干預(yù)，任人民幣自動(dòng)上浮。如果中國(guó)在2003年至2004年間實(shí)現(xiàn)了貿(mào)易順差的逐步降低，人民幣逐漸貶值的話，現(xiàn)在的形勢(shì)就要好很多。但現(xiàn)在的情況是：人民幣嚴(yán)重低估，必須對(duì)人民幣匯率進(jìn)行階段性調(diào)整。首先要明確的是人民幣兌美元相對(duì)緩慢的升值解決不了問題。假設(shè)美元的實(shí)際有效匯率在未來(lái)的三年中貶值15%—20%，即使人民幣兌美元每年升值5%，其真實(shí)有效匯率也不會(huì)有大幅升值，也就是說，人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率受美元貶值的影響。因此，不能

61、孤立的看人民幣兌美元的名義匯率是否在升值。更嚴(yán)重的是，當(dāng)人民幣在緩慢升值的軌道上運(yùn)行時(shí)，市場(chǎng)有可能期望人民幣有一個(gè)意外的大幅升值，這將招致大量投機(jī)資本的流入中國(guó)。綜上所述，尼克?拉迪（Nick Lardy）和我一直認(rèn)為人民幣一次性、大幅升值是正確的舉措，是人民幣貨幣體系改革兩步曲的第一步。 在進(jìn)行大膽的匯率調(diào)整的同時(shí)，中國(guó)政府應(yīng)該擴(kuò)大政府開支、調(diào)整開支方向，健全包括醫(yī)療、教育和養(yǎng)老體系在內(nèi)的社會(huì)保障體系，降低由于社會(huì)保障不健全而引發(fā)的高儲(chǔ)蓄率。另外，中國(guó)應(yīng)該拋棄“人民幣匯率是國(guó)家主權(quán)問題”的想法，嚴(yán)格謹(jǐn)遵IMF成員國(guó)關(guān)于匯率政策的條約。 美國(guó)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)局，2007年3月28日 彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所 莫里斯?戈?duì)柎奶梗∕orris Goldstein） 13