成莊煤礦300萬(wàn)噸新井設(shè)計(jì)【含CAD圖紙+文檔】,含CAD圖紙+文檔,煤礦,萬(wàn)噸新井,設(shè)計(jì),cad,圖紙,文檔 附錄A： 復(fù)雜性科學(xué)及其在煤礦安全行為問(wèn)題研究方面的啟示 摘要：復(fù)雜性科學(xué)是一種前沿的系統(tǒng)科學(xué) 近年，中國(guó)的煤炭工業(yè)迅速發(fā)展，并為經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)作出了重要的貢獻(xiàn)。煤礦的安全問(wèn)題對(duì)于煤炭工業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展來(lái)說(shuō)歷來(lái)是一個(gè)桎梏 。站在一個(gè)新的視角來(lái)看，煤礦安全問(wèn)題的研究是一個(gè)值得重視的課題。本文把近幾年中復(fù)雜性科學(xué)的發(fā)展與其在煤礦安全行為問(wèn)題研究方面的啟示相結(jié)合，對(duì)其進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的研究。 關(guān)鍵詞：復(fù)雜性科學(xué) 礦井安全 混亂 1、復(fù)雜性科學(xué)的發(fā)展 復(fù)雜性科學(xué)的研究對(duì)象為復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)或系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性。不同的學(xué)者對(duì)于復(fù)雜性給出了不同的定義。但卻難以給出一個(gè)精確的定義?？偨Y(jié)各種觀點(diǎn)，系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性主要可以概括為以下幾個(gè)方面：1 ) 系統(tǒng)各單元之間是一種廣泛且緊密的網(wǎng)絡(luò)式聯(lián)系。所以，其中任何一個(gè)單元的變化都可能影響到其他的單元并引起其他單元的變化。2）系統(tǒng)是包含眾多因素的一個(gè)多層次，多機(jī)能的結(jié)構(gòu)。每一個(gè)層次是一個(gè)單元，它有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)一個(gè)特定的機(jī)能。3 ) 系統(tǒng)中包含有一個(gè)回饋循環(huán)。 在發(fā)展過(guò)程中，系統(tǒng)能不斷的學(xué)習(xí)并改進(jìn)其層次結(jié)構(gòu)和機(jī)能結(jié)構(gòu)。4 ) 系統(tǒng)是開(kāi)放的，它與外界有密切聯(lián)系并相互作用。5 ) 系統(tǒng)具有不斷演變的自我適應(yīng)能力。6）它不能用常規(guī)的理論與方法來(lái)解釋。7 )系統(tǒng)的特性曲線(xiàn)是動(dòng)態(tài)與非線(xiàn)性的。8)系統(tǒng)具有跨越水平得特性，例如包含，關(guān)聯(lián)，互相影響和作用。 復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)存在于我們世界的各個(gè)領(lǐng)域:物理系統(tǒng),生態(tài)學(xué)系統(tǒng),社會(huì)系統(tǒng),等等.根據(jù)生命現(xiàn)象得的獨(dú)立單元，智能信息結(jié)構(gòu)，原料銷(xiāo)售的起伏 ，社會(huì)的進(jìn)步和衰退，人體的免疫系統(tǒng)，這些系統(tǒng)的共同特征是，在不確定的變化之后會(huì)出現(xiàn)一些不確定的秩序。研究復(fù)雜性的目的不僅僅是揭示和描述其運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)原理，而是要解決如何預(yù)測(cè)和處理復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)中那些以前無(wú)法解釋和處理的問(wèn)題。 在1984年，在諾貝爾物理學(xué)獲獎(jiǎng)人穆拉伊.耶爾-曼,腓力.安德森,和諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的獲獎(jiǎng)人 阿羅的贊助下,集合了一群來(lái)自物理學(xué)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，生態(tài)學(xué)原理和計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)方面的研究專(zhuān)家，創(chuàng)建了著名的圣菲研究所。他們集中這些領(lǐng)域的人員和思維，去試圖揭示復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的主要原理。布魯塞爾大學(xué)在普里果金領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下和尼里克斯合作,撰寫(xiě)了著名的“復(fù)雜性研究”一書(shū)，并為這一學(xué)科打下了堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)。在我國(guó)由錢(qián)學(xué)森提出的開(kāi)放綜合性“龐大系統(tǒng)”的研究和國(guó)外復(fù)雜性的研究是異曲同工.由錢(qián)學(xué)森提出的開(kāi)放綜合性“龐大系統(tǒng)”原理，應(yīng)用定性分析法和定量分析法來(lái)討論這些系統(tǒng)，集中專(zhuān)家小組（來(lái)自所有領(lǐng)域的專(zhuān)家），資料和所有的信息通過(guò)有機(jī)計(jì)算，并將各種原理和多種學(xué)科的知識(shí)有機(jī)的結(jié)合，這與圣菲研究所的研究方法是一樣的。 在專(zhuān)業(yè)領(lǐng)域，關(guān)于復(fù)雜性的主要理論學(xué)說(shuō)有： 布賴(lài)恩.亞瑟將效益遞增叫做Owner Gain（擁有者增益）。卓越的科學(xué)家例如：馬里.熱爾曼 , 喬治.科旺和菲力普.安德森也提出相似觀點(diǎn)，他們認(rèn)為學(xué)科應(yīng)該朝著一致性的方向發(fā)展，他們也 提出“Agent（作用因素）”和“Emergence（緊急事件）”的觀念。約翰.奧朗首創(chuàng)了因子運(yùn)算 ，系統(tǒng)分類(lèi)法，推動(dòng)了神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)算的發(fā)展，推斷出了復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的自我適應(yīng)性。Chris Longton 建立了人力壽命理論，推動(dòng)了激勵(lì)個(gè)體理論的發(fā)展，并提出復(fù)雜引起注意的觀念。斐莫將神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，固有運(yùn)算，分類(lèi)系統(tǒng)模式，自動(dòng)催化模型和免疫系統(tǒng)模式結(jié)合在一起，運(yùn)用連結(jié)機(jī)制的思想提出了結(jié)點(diǎn)聯(lián)想模型。丹麥物理學(xué)家佩爾.鮑克提出自我組織臨界性原理，考夫曼提出了自我組織臨界性條件的理論 。 由于復(fù)雜性的突出表現(xiàn)形式較多，根據(jù)上述的原理試圖建立新的相關(guān)的組織管理理論，解決曾經(jīng)在傳統(tǒng)的管理理論下被認(rèn)為是難題的問(wèn)題，目前已經(jīng)有了一些進(jìn)展?！皬?fù)雜性:一個(gè)產(chǎn)生于秩序和混亂交界處的學(xué)科”從理論角度描述了復(fù)雜性系統(tǒng)理論的來(lái)源和啟動(dòng)過(guò)程。最早出版的學(xué)術(shù)著作是“復(fù)雜性,管理者和組織”和“混亂:誕生的一個(gè)新的學(xué)科”，在此領(lǐng)域中，后者被認(rèn)為是非常經(jīng)典的著作?！霸趪?guó)內(nèi)的領(lǐng)域：研究自我組織和復(fù)雜性原則”表明復(fù)雜性學(xué)科在經(jīng)濟(jì)和組織理論方面有著巨大的重要性?！邦I(lǐng)導(dǎo)者和新的學(xué)科:保證總體的狀況良好的組織性研究” 研究量子結(jié)構(gòu)和 綜合的理論并將其引入領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者和組織學(xué)科?！氨罎⒌幕靵y:探索的復(fù)雜世界的簡(jiǎn)單規(guī)律”描述了過(guò)去在混亂和復(fù)雜性中發(fā)現(xiàn)的一些簡(jiǎn)單規(guī)律?！皺C(jī)構(gòu)中的復(fù)雜性和創(chuàng)造性”敘述了將新的學(xué)科應(yīng)用到 機(jī)構(gòu)的發(fā)展和改革中去。將復(fù)雜性學(xué)科應(yīng)用到企業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)中，這絕對(duì)是一門(mén)新的學(xué)科，因?yàn)閺?fù)雜性學(xué)科本身是一個(gè)發(fā)展中的學(xué)科，沒(méi)有現(xiàn)成的和成熟的理論結(jié)構(gòu)可以應(yīng)用。但是，復(fù)雜性學(xué)科所提供的新的思維模式對(duì)于企業(yè)管理來(lái)說(shuō)真是筆巨大的財(cái)富。 2、介紹煤礦安全問(wèn)題的研究形勢(shì) 目前，在我國(guó)的能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)中煤炭占據(jù)了70％以上。在將來(lái)的30－50年間，這種能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)不會(huì)改變。自從我國(guó)建國(guó)以來(lái)，煤炭工業(yè)迅速發(fā)展并未國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)做出了重大的貢獻(xiàn)。煤炭生產(chǎn)主要受地質(zhì)與環(huán)境的影響。安全是煤炭生產(chǎn)的一條生命線(xiàn)。它是在研究煤礦安全生產(chǎn)問(wèn)題時(shí)，擺在我們面前的一個(gè)重要課題。 當(dāng)前我國(guó)對(duì)于煤礦安全生產(chǎn)問(wèn)題的研究主要表現(xiàn)在以下幾個(gè)方面： 2.1、從技術(shù)方面進(jìn)行研究 這方面的研究開(kāi)始較早并取得了許多成績(jī)，主要包括事故的預(yù)防和控制技術(shù)，例如瓦斯，煤塵，滲水，煤的自然，等等。在近年間，國(guó)有大中型煤礦在安全技術(shù)和機(jī)械設(shè)備上做了重大改善。 2.2、從心理學(xué)方面進(jìn)行因果分析 陳啟昌提出人為因素在傷亡事故的發(fā)生中起重要作用。易亦勤對(duì)于煤礦安全問(wèn)題的實(shí)質(zhì)，傷亡事故的原因進(jìn)行了深入的研究，尤其是心里因素和行為因素以及其原因，表現(xiàn)，原理，控制手段。林澤巖經(jīng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，無(wú)論是國(guó)營(yíng)煤礦，國(guó)有煤礦或者私有煤礦，人為因素引起的事故與死亡次數(shù)要高于偶然因素引起的事故次數(shù)。他認(rèn)為心里因素例如，人的意識(shí)和情緒是使事故發(fā)生的主要原因。 2.3、從系統(tǒng)科學(xué)方面進(jìn)行研究 馮兆瑞和崔國(guó)章通過(guò)因果研究，安全檢查表，事件樹(shù)，事故樹(shù)和危險(xiǎn)性預(yù)測(cè)，對(duì)生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)中的不安全因素和潛在的危害進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的分析。李金平和李中海將“safety starlight huge system （安全之光龐大系統(tǒng)）”管理方法應(yīng)用到了煤礦安全管理方面。他認(rèn)為現(xiàn)今的體制 不再是金字塔式的，他們更趨向于“universe（全域） ”；“Huge System（龐大的系統(tǒng)） ”，這意味著安全管理問(wèn)題超過(guò)了安全的本身。梁秉鐸試著將立體經(jīng)營(yíng)模式，循環(huán)經(jīng)營(yíng)模式和螺旋上升式經(jīng)營(yíng)模式應(yīng)用到煤礦安全管理中去。張和平和王管昌將煤礦安全系統(tǒng)工程的理論與方法應(yīng)用到了對(duì)煤礦安全生產(chǎn)的評(píng)估中。 國(guó)外的研究文獻(xiàn)和書(shū)籍涉及的安全問(wèn)題較多是來(lái)自美國(guó)和歐洲,但只很少注意煤礦的安全問(wèn)題.這是由于石油為主體的能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)代替了煤炭為主體的能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)。 海因里克根據(jù)大量的統(tǒng)計(jì)資料對(duì)事故進(jìn)行研究,他注重于強(qiáng)調(diào)事故發(fā)生的真正原因.行為心理學(xué)者(哈登,舍茨,舒奇曼,1961)提出了通過(guò)轉(zhuǎn)變勞動(dòng)者的行為可以減少事故的發(fā)生的概念.尼克.緯紗.胡斯特，史蒂芬.揚(yáng)，伊恩.唐納德 ,與胡.吉普森灑,通過(guò)對(duì)歐洲四個(gè)國(guó)家的六個(gè)主要危險(xiǎn)地點(diǎn)進(jìn)行的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在有重大隱患的工廠或企業(yè),只要有正確的安全態(tài)度和良好的PSMS性能,就可以減少事故的發(fā)生.T. P. 凱爾與J. A. 麥克德米德提出使用規(guī)章制度來(lái)保證工人的安全態(tài)度的方法.尼爾.米奇森,喬治 .A. 帕帕扎基斯 研究了如何對(duì)安全體系進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)和實(shí)施. 比吉特 瑞斯姆森納與庫(kù)爾特 E. 彼得森創(chuàng)建 了一個(gè)適于工廠機(jī)能的社會(huì)技術(shù)系統(tǒng)模型,并運(yùn)用這一模型為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)評(píng)價(jià)安全管理的效果.艾莉森 G 洛登堡在他的研究報(bào)告中總結(jié)了影響安全管理成果的六項(xiàng)因素。這些因素是管理者的職責(zé)，獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)，交流和回饋，選擇，順序和參與。他還分別研究了各個(gè)因素減少人身事故的作用程度。N 麥克唐納 ,S 科里甘 ,C 達(dá) ,S 克魯密提出了一個(gè)自我調(diào)整模型用來(lái)測(cè)試不同的體制如何安全經(jīng)營(yíng)。這種模型更注重與人和團(tuán)體間的相互作用 。格奇提出了TSM概念（完全安全管理）。這個(gè)安全管理方法是根據(jù)TQM 的 基本原理形成的，并用于指導(dǎo)實(shí)踐。 它可以表明在目前關(guān)于安全研究的原理和方法主要集中于特定的問(wèn)題，并限于確切的空間 和時(shí)間。魏因施泰因認(rèn)為這些方法強(qiáng)調(diào)于技術(shù)需求并傾向于短期影響.必須承認(rèn)，過(guò)多的煤礦事故早已成為困擾我國(guó)煤炭生產(chǎn)的問(wèn)題。作者有以下觀點(diǎn)： 1)無(wú)論是在建礦,領(lǐng)導(dǎo)生產(chǎn)還是經(jīng)營(yíng)過(guò)程中,安全問(wèn)題已經(jīng)成為煤礦生產(chǎn)中一個(gè)非常重大的事情. 2)礦山安全行為系統(tǒng)是一個(gè)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng).它的復(fù)雜性主要表現(xiàn)在安全行為的復(fù)雜性與不確定性;安全行為體系的復(fù)雜性,多單元,多功能,多指標(biāo);安全行為預(yù)測(cè)的非線(xiàn)性和不確定性;決定生產(chǎn)與控制;資料的非協(xié)調(diào)性;安全行為系統(tǒng)的不平衡和混亂;各個(gè)因素的相互作用,安全行為系統(tǒng)中的周?chē)h(huán)境的相互影響,自我組織,自我適應(yīng)過(guò)程的復(fù)雜性,等等. 3)行為的復(fù)雜性是一個(gè)參數(shù),相當(dāng)于巨大的高維概率空間.其主導(dǎo)特征是行為軟件,小風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處理(敏銳 模數(shù) 鈍化 ),介質(zhì)尺寸(統(tǒng)計(jì)分析不確切的管理行為) 4)在煤礦的不安全行為系統(tǒng)中存在一種反向演變 5)對(duì)于礦山安全問(wèn)題的研究來(lái)說(shuō),根據(jù)復(fù)雜性系統(tǒng)的研究采取措施也許是一種有用且靈活的方法. 3、復(fù)雜性科學(xué)在煤礦安全行為問(wèn)題研究方面的啟示 啟示一:把握整體.煤礦安全問(wèn)題是非常復(fù)雜的.這意味著它作為一個(gè)整體具有相當(dāng)新的特性，傳統(tǒng)方法的思想面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。分析這類(lèi)問(wèn)題的時(shí)候，我們習(xí)慣于將它們劃分成簡(jiǎn)單的可分解的要素，分別研究再綜合其結(jié)果。雖然這種規(guī)規(guī)矩矩的解析法曾推動(dòng)了科學(xué)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，但是隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的發(fā)展，這種單獨(dú)分析的解析方法的局限性越來(lái)越明顯。當(dāng)一個(gè)問(wèn)題被分解成各個(gè)要素的時(shí)候，會(huì)造成一些重要因素的丟失。煤礦安全問(wèn)題是一個(gè)重要的生命系統(tǒng)。一旦它被劃分，他將會(huì)失去原有的意義。因此 ，研究煤礦安全問(wèn)題必須把握整體模式。 啟示二：過(guò)多個(gè)體的自發(fā)的行為將要引起整體規(guī)律的集聚，亦即：著重于“合并 ”和自我組織。系統(tǒng)的組織能力或者生成結(jié)構(gòu)出自個(gè)體的無(wú)意行為則被稱(chēng)作"意外事故"。在無(wú)外部事物的影響下，能引起高級(jí)系統(tǒng)和復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部自動(dòng)組織的能力被稱(chēng)作自我組織能力。用于觀察意外事故和自我組織的方法完全不同于傳統(tǒng)的結(jié)構(gòu)和管理體制的組織方法。在這里提供一個(gè)新的視角來(lái)研究煤礦安全問(wèn)題：不應(yīng)該有意的去限制和控制不安全行為，而應(yīng)該強(qiáng)調(diào)灌輸自我安全行為意識(shí)的步驟和方法。 啟示三：熟悉安全的行為相關(guān)的周?chē)挛?，因?yàn)樗芤鹱晕医M織。如何找到引發(fā)安全行為自我組織和意外事故的最好手段：熟悉安全的行為相關(guān)的周?chē)挛锸亲詈檬侄?。普里果金曾經(jīng) 指出一個(gè)系統(tǒng)引起自我組織需要滿(mǎn)足三個(gè)方面的指標(biāo)：第一,它應(yīng)該是一個(gè)開(kāi)放式系統(tǒng)，與外界有能源,物質(zhì)，和信息和交流。第二：系統(tǒng)應(yīng)該是動(dòng)態(tài)的和超過(guò)平衡的。第三：在系統(tǒng)中存在某個(gè)回饋過(guò)程使其得到迅速的發(fā)展。普里果金指出的第三方面，信息共享機(jī)制是必定要發(fā)展的，因?yàn)橄到y(tǒng)作為一個(gè)整體來(lái)說(shuō)于周?chē)挛锸窍嗷ヒ来娴摹Ｗ匀滑F(xiàn)象中的這三項(xiàng)自我組織前題，為煤礦安全問(wèn)題中的安全行為自我組織提供了重要的啟示。一個(gè)具有安全行為自我組織能力的煤礦具備 以下特性 ：1)員工有高度的自覺(jué)性;2)由下至上確立安全指標(biāo);3）新的安全觀念和手段層出不窮。4）適當(dāng)?shù)姆答佔(zhàn)饔每梢愿淖儚?fù)雜的周?chē)h(huán)境。 啟示四：確認(rèn)能夠產(chǎn)生安全行為凝聚。相關(guān)的外界介質(zhì)如何引起安全行為自我組織？按照普里果金的研究，這取決于微觀的水平的起伏。亦即:微觀層次方面，員工的安全行為的擾亂過(guò)程 ，由于個(gè)人行為引起安全行為自我組織和意外事故的活動(dòng)并決定了整體水平方面整個(gè)煤礦的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn) 方向。 啟示五：整體和部分的聯(lián)合演變。個(gè)體是如何改變集體的？安全問(wèn)題的每個(gè)部分與其他部分之間都會(huì)相互影響，相互作用，它將引起安全系統(tǒng)中所有部分的聯(lián)合演變。 啟示六：安全行為系統(tǒng)是逐漸形成展開(kāi)的，形成過(guò)程的本身也是逐漸的，演變本身（煤礦安全系統(tǒng)的循環(huán)流程和規(guī)律）也是逐漸形成的。規(guī)律是變化的，所以我們也可以改變它們。 啟示七：在領(lǐng)導(dǎo)煤礦生產(chǎn)中發(fā)現(xiàn)問(wèn)題并建立安全行為系統(tǒng)。耗散結(jié)構(gòu)的理論表明要預(yù)測(cè)綜合安全系統(tǒng)或構(gòu)造的演變結(jié)果幾乎是不可能的。混沌理論指出在非線(xiàn)性系統(tǒng)中，在初始狀態(tài)一瞬間 不會(huì)引起極端明顯的結(jié)果。由這兩方面判斷，要預(yù)測(cè)復(fù)雜的安全問(wèn)題是不可能的。最好的預(yù)防方法是創(chuàng)造 。一旦非預(yù)期的問(wèn)題出現(xiàn)的時(shí)候，應(yīng)該立即做出決策，因?yàn)橐?guī)律本身不會(huì)重復(fù)。所以，管理者必須注意根據(jù)事故來(lái)轉(zhuǎn)換模式：從不預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果，而是領(lǐng)導(dǎo)建立煤礦安全行為系統(tǒng)。 到目前為止 ,復(fù)雜性系統(tǒng)仍然不是一個(gè)精確的科學(xué)理論,但它是一各綜合的概念 .這個(gè)概念以提前應(yīng)用到了具有強(qiáng)大計(jì)算能力的計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)的研究,邏輯推理和原理應(yīng)用當(dāng)中,也許會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)一些簡(jiǎn)單規(guī)律中的一些動(dòng)態(tài)模型,并設(shè)法找到各簡(jiǎn)單并零散的元素間的交互作用的一致性和目的性的整體變化.總之,它為我們研究煤礦安全問(wèn)題提供了一個(gè)新的平臺(tái). 表1給出了一些復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)理論在煤礦安全問(wèn)題方面的潛在作用： 表 1 復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)理論的潛在用途 原理 推論 實(shí)際應(yīng)用 地形適應(yīng)性 從整體中選擇區(qū)域 尋找安全行為的展開(kāi)策略 地形適應(yīng)性 共同發(fā)展的演變 認(rèn)識(shí)到安全行為反饋循環(huán)和各個(gè)水平之間相互作用與聯(lián)系的存在。 吸引物 消極行為遵循某一特定模式 建立安全行為模式比改變現(xiàn)狀更重要。 模擬 鍛煉 “干擾 ”能夠提高 創(chuàng)造性 根據(jù)干擾 ,新的意見(jiàn)或者外界觀點(diǎn)找出安全問(wèn)題的主要因素 。 模擬 鍛煉 管理的混亂與無(wú)序 某種混亂(干擾 )有益于 控制器 全體安全行為,數(shù)據(jù)流或者信息 的選擇。 單元 將整體劃分為獨(dú)立的行為單元 將安全系統(tǒng)體制劃分為相互關(guān)聯(lián)的單元。 T字形理論 過(guò)多的數(shù)據(jù)流將會(huì)阻塞通道 在同一周期企業(yè)的行為改變是受到限制的 效益遞增 知識(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)完全不同于傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì) 利用任何潛在的機(jī)會(huì)提高對(duì)企業(yè)或社會(huì)的安全生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的影響。 初值靈敏度 預(yù)測(cè)是不可能的 領(lǐng)導(dǎo)建立安全行為系統(tǒng) 參考文獻(xiàn) [1]徐征權(quán).組織信息和復(fù)雜性科學(xué).學(xué)科和管理，2003,1:16-19 [2]宋雪峰.關(guān)于管理的復(fù)雜性的研究與發(fā)展.科學(xué)管理，2000,10:56-58 [3]陳思維.復(fù)雜性科學(xué)和系統(tǒng)工程，管理學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)，1999, 2(2):1-7 [4]宋雪峰.系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜性的檢測(cè)方法.In :關(guān)于管理的復(fù)雜性發(fā)展的第一次全國(guó)會(huì)議,2001.64-73 [5]約翰 N 沃菲爾德.發(fā)散思維：說(shuō)明工作效率低的團(tuán)體.系統(tǒng)研究,1995,12(1):5-14 [6]陳啟昌.安全生產(chǎn)和心理狀態(tài).重慶:重慶出版社,1985 [7]易亦勤.煤礦安全問(wèn)題的心理學(xué)研究.北京:中國(guó)煤炭工業(yè)出版社,1992 [8]林澤炎.人為事故預(yù)防學(xué)[M].黑龍江教育出版社,1998,12-15. [9]馮兆瑞,崔國(guó)章.安全系統(tǒng)工程.北京:金屬冶煉工業(yè)出版社,1987 [10]李金平,李海中.煤礦安全管理方法新的探索.煤炭,2000,9(5):12-16 [11]梁秉鐸.煤礦安全管理工程問(wèn)題的探索.礦山安全和環(huán)境保護(hù),1998,5:30-34 [12]張和平,王管昌.煤礦安全評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng)在安全管理中的應(yīng)用.煤礦安全,2001,7:61-62 [13]尼克W. 胡斯特,史蒂芬揚(yáng),等.六個(gè)主要危險(xiǎn)中心的安全管理手段的實(shí)施和狀態(tài).過(guò)程中的耗損指標(biāo),1996,9(2):161-172 [14]T P 凱爾 ,J A 麥克德米德 .維護(hù)安全狀況的系統(tǒng)研究法 .可靠性技術(shù)和系統(tǒng)安全性 2001,71:271-284 [15]尼爾 米奇森 ,喬治 A. 帕帕扎基斯 ,SevesoII下的安全管理系統(tǒng) ：實(shí)施和評(píng)價(jià).制造業(yè)防損期刊 ,1999,12:43-51 [16]比吉特 瑞斯姆森納,庫(kù)爾特 E. 彼得森.設(shè)置函數(shù)模型作為評(píng)定安全管理設(shè)備的基礎(chǔ) .可靠性技術(shù)與系統(tǒng)安全性 ,1999,64:201-207 [17]艾莉森 G 洛登堡 .安全機(jī)構(gòu):那種管理能夠減少事故.安全研究學(xué)報(bào) ,2002,33:259-276 [18]N 麥克唐納 ,S 科里甘 ,C 達(dá) ,S 克魯密 .航空維護(hù)機(jī)構(gòu)的安全管理系統(tǒng)和安全培養(yǎng) .安全科 [19]格奇 D L. 技術(shù)員,工程師和管理員的職業(yè)安全和健康 , 新澤西州 :普倫蒂塞學(xué)院 ,1999 附錄B： Science of Complexity and Its Revelation on Study of Coal Mine Safety Behavior Problems Chen Hong (School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou 221008, Jiangsu, China) Abstract: Complexity science is the foreland of system science. In recent years, coal industry has got rapid development in China,and does important contribution to economy growth. The problem of mine safety has always been a shackle to the sustainable development of coal enterprises. It is a significant task to study mine safety problem from a new angle of view. This paper has a systematic thought combined with the development of complexity science in recent years, and forms some revelations on the study of coal safety problems. Keywords: science of complexity; coal mine safety; chaos 1 Development of Complexity Science The science of complexity takes complex system or the complexity of system as its study objects. Different scholars give different definitions to complexity. It is difficult to give an exact definition. Combined with some points of view, the complexity of system can be mainly embodied in the following aspects: 1) The connections between cells of system are wide and tight with network. Therefore, the change of any cell will be affected by the changes of other cells, and will cause changes of other cells. 2) System consists of many agents with a multi-level and multi-function structure. Every level is the cell of upper level, and is helpful to the realization of a certain function. 3) System consists of feedback annulus. In the process of development, system can learn continuously and have a recompose of its level structure and function structure. 4) System is open to environment; it has a close relationship with environment, and has an interaction with environment. 5) System is an evolvement system with self-adapting ability. 6) It cannot be explained with traditional theory and method. 7) System has the characteristics of dynamic and non-linearity. 8) System has the character of span level, such as embedded, interlinked, inter influenced and affected. Complex system exists in all fields of our world: physics system, biology system, human society system,etc. From the life phenomenon of a single cell, structure of the brain and intelligence, ups and dow ns in the stock market, to rise and decline of the society, immunity system of the human body, the common character of these systems is that behind uncertain changes, there comes out some uncertain orders. The aim of complexity study is not only to reveal and describe the locomotion principles, but also to solve the problem of forecasting and controlling of the complex system that seems unsolvable and cannot be handled before [1-5]. In 1984, with the support of Nobel Physics Prize winner Murray Gell-mann, Philip Anderson, and Nobel Economics Prize winner Arrow, assembling a group of research experts from the fields of physics, economics,theory biology and computing science, the most famous Santa Fe Graduate School was established. They tried to reveal the general principles dominating the complex system by gathering personnel and thoughts of these fields. Brussels College under the leadership of Prigogine and coauthored with Nilicos, wrote the famous book “Exploration of Complexity”, and set a strong foundation to this science. The study of opening complex “huge system” in our country represented by Qian Xuesen is different in approach but equally satisfactory in result with study of complexity system abroad. The concept of opening complex “huge system” abstracted by Qian Xuesen, the synthetic integration methods of qualitative and quantitative methods to deal with these systems, to combine expert group (experts from all fields), data and all information with the computing technology organically, and to combine theories and knowledge of various subject together organically, have the same study methods with Santa Fe Graduate School. In specific field, the main theory contributions on complexity are as follows: Reward Increase by Degrees, is also called Owner Gain, by Brian Arthur. Outstanding scientists such as Marry Gellman, George Cowan, and Philip Anderson also put forward the thought of subject conformity, they think that subject should be in the direction of development from revert to unity, they also put forward the concepts of “Agent” and “Emergence”. John Holland initiates gene arithmetic, sorter system, impels the development of nerve network arithmetic, deduces the characters of complex self-adapting system. Chris Longton sets up the manpower life theory, impels the development of cell motivator theory, and puts forward the concept of complex attractor. Fammer unites nerve network, inheritance arithmetic, classifying system model, auto-catalyze model and immunity system model together as node-associate model by the thought of connectionist. Denmark born physics Per Bak puts forward the concept of self-organization criticality.Kauffman puts forward the theory of self-organization criticality conditions. As the most protruding manifestation of complexity, organization management theory is trying to set up new relative theory on the basis of theories above to solve problems regarded as puzzles and dilemma under traditional management theory, there are already some progress at present. “Complexity: a Science Born at the Edge of Order and Chaos” describes the origin and starting process of complex system theory from the angle of theory founder. The earliest academically published books are “Complexity, Supervisor and Organization” and “Chaos: Naissance of a New Science”，the latter is considered the most classical works in this realm. “At the Home of Universe: Study on Principles of Self-organization and Complexity” demonstrates the great significance of complexity science in the field of economy and organization theory. “Leadership and New Science: Organizational Study of the Universe in Order” studies the quanta structure and complex theory and introduces them to leadership and organization science. “Collapse of Chaos: Exploring the Simple Laws of Complex world ” describes some simple laws in the history of finding chaos and complexity. “Complexity and Creativity in Organizations” narrates how to apply new science to the development and transformation of organizations. It is an absolutely new subject to apply complexity science to the management of organizations, because complexity science itself is a science in the process of formation, with no existing and ripe theory structure to be applied for. But the new model of thinking and metaphor that complexity science supplies for organization management is really a great wealth. 2 Present Research Situation of Coal Mine Safety Problems At present, coal occupies over 70% in energy consuming construction in our country. This kind of energy consuming structure will not change in 30-50 years in the future. Since the foundation of our country, coal industry has got rapid development and has done a major contribution to the national economy. Coal production greatly influenced by geology and environment. Safety is a Life Line of coal production. It is a significant subject in front of us to study safety problems in coal production. The current research on safety problems of coal production in our country mainly lies in the following aspects: 2.1 Research from Aspect of Technique The research of this aspect starts early and has many achievements, involving primarily the technological prevention and controlling of disasters such as gas, coal dust, water leakage, coal self-burning, etc. In recent years, the state-owned large and medium-sized mine enterprises have got substantial improvement in the aspects of safety techniques and equipments. 2.2 Cause and Effect Analysis from Aspect of Psychology Chen Qichang thought that contrived factors had important function in the occurrence of casualty accidents[6]. Yi Yiqin connected with the reality of mine safety problems, probed into the causes of casualty accidents, especially the factors of psychology and behavior, and their causations, representations, principles,and controlling measures[7]. Lin Zeyan found in his research that no matter in state-allocated mines, state-owned local mines, or village-owned(including individual) mines, the accident number and death number resulted from factitious adventure are higher than that of accidents by chance[8]. He thought psychological factors such as people’s consciousness and emotion are the main reasons for the cause of accidents. 2.3 From Aspect of Systematic Science Feng Zhaorui and Cui Guozhang had a systematic analysis on the unsafe factors in the production system and their possible damages to the system by means of cause and effect analysis, safety check table, incident tree,accident tree, and fatalness pre-analysis[9]. Li Jinping and Li Zhonghai applied “safety starlight huge system”management method into mine production safety management[10]. He thought that nowadays organizations are no longer like pyramids, instead, they tend more like “universe”. “Huge System” means to manage safety problems beyond safety itself. Liang Bingduo tried to apply stereoscopic mode of management, circumvolve type of circulating management, and spiral ascension type of management into coal safety management[11].Zhang Heping and Wang Guanchang applied the theory and method of mine safety system project into the evaluation of safe production in coal mines[12]. The abroad research literatures and books concerning safety problem are more from America and Europe,but little aims at safety problem in coal mine directly. This is due to the petrolem-dominated energy consuming structure instead of coal-dominated energy consuming structure. Heinrich (1881-1962) studied accidents on the foundation of a great deal of statistic data, and emphasized on the real causes of accidents. Behavior psychologists (Haddon, Scherzer, & Suchman, 1961) put forward the idea that accidents can be reduced by changing workers’ behaviors. Nick W.Hurst，Stephen Young，Ian Donald ,and Hu Gibson, by research on the six major hazard sites in four countries of Europe, they found that right attitude to safety and favorable PSMS performance can reduce accidents happening on site or enterprises with great hidden risks[13]. T.P. Kelly and J.A. McDermid put forward the method to keep safety state by system measures[14].Neil Mitchison,Georgios A.Papadakis research how to appraise and perform the safty system[15]. Birgitte Rasmussena and Kurt E. Petersenb established a society technology system model for factory functions, and used this model as bases to evaluate the effect of safety management[16]. Alison G. Vredenburgh summed up six factors that would affect successful safety management in his research report. These factors are managers’ responsibility, encouragement, communication and feedback, selection, training and participation. He also respectively studied the influence degree of each factors to reduce personal damage[17]. N. McDonald , S.Corrigan, C. Daly and S. Cromie put forward a self-regulation model to test different organizations how to manage safety. This model stresses espacially on interactions between human and organizations[18]. Goetsch put forward the idea of TSM(total safety management). This is a safety management method formed from the basic priciple of TQM and used as a guide to practice[19]. It can be seen that research theories and methods on safety are mainly focused on specific problems at present, and they are limited to the validity of space and time. Weinstein thinks these methods emphasize on technology requirement and prefer short-term effect[20]. It is necessary to recognize the problem of excessive coal accidents that has puzzled coal production in our country for a long time. The writer has the following standpoints: 1) Safety problem has been a fatal thing for organizing, decision-making and operating of safe coal production. 2) Mine safety behavior system is a complex system. Its complexity mainly lies in complexity and uncertainty of safety behavior environment; complexity of safety organization behavior of multiplayer,multi-cell, multifunction, and multi-target; non-linearity and uncertainty of safety behavior prediction,decision-making and controlling; non-symmetry of information; non-balance and chaos of safety behavior system; interaction of all factors, and complexity of the process of interaction with complex environment and self-organization and self-adaptation of safety behavior system, etc. 3) Behavior complexity is a property, corresponding with great high-dimension probability space. The dominant characteristics are soft behavior, small risk process (acumen modulus passivation ), medium-sized range (statistic contiguity of uncertain management behavior). 4) There is reverse direction evolvement in unsafe behavior system. 5) Management countermeasures based on complex system analysis may be a valuable supplement to research of mine safety problems 3 Revelation of Complexity Science on Study of Coal Mine Safety Behavior Problems The first revelation is: hold the whole. The safety problem in coal mine is very complex. Thi